The second quarter report of China's deleveraging process: the financial leverage ratio has fallen back to the level of 2014
recently, the issue of whether deleveraging is excessive and how to deleverage has aroused heated debate in the academic community. On September 18, at the third session of the national balance of Nations Forum held by the national finance and development laboratory this year, Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the national finance and development laboratory and director of the national balance sheet Research Center, said, "deleveraging is structural, both decreasing and increasing."
at the meeting, the national fixture: metal plate: 100x100x5mm 10 pieces, Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the finance and development laboratory, Chang Xin, deputy director of the national balance sheet Research Center, and Liu Lei, senior researcher of the national balance sheet Research Center, released the China deleveraging report entitled "has the deleveraging policy changed" (the second quarter of 2018, hereinafter referred to as the "report"), which was discussed from multiple perspectives by experts and scholars present at the meeting
the report's survey and summary of leverage in the current economy shows that the leverage ratio of the real economy sector has increased slightly. At the end of the second quarter of 2018, the overall leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points and remained basically stable. The financial leverage ratio has fallen back to the level of 2014, and the financial sector is still accelerating deleveraging due to the strengthening of financial supervision. In terms of sub sectors, the report shows that the total leverage ratio of the government has decreased from 36.2% to 35.3%, a total decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The leverage ratio of the non-financial enterprise sector fell from 157.0% at the end of 2017 to 156.4% at the end of the second quarter of 2018, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in the half year. The leverage ratio of the resident sector is still rising, rising by 2 percentage points in half a year, but the growth rate is slower than that of the same period last yearAccording to Zhang Xiaojing's analysis, short-term consumer loans are still the main driving force driving the rise in loan balances and the leverage ratio of the residential sector. The current balance of this indicator is 7.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.3% year-on-year. "The rise in short-term consumer loans is of positive significance, reflecting that more residents can enjoy bank loan services, which is a manifestation of financial deepening." Zhang Xiaojing said that the biggest problem facing the leverage ratio of the residential sector at present is the rapid growth rate, which brings certain risks to the macro financial system. However, as the growth rate of housing loans declines, the growth rate of this leverage ratio should decline. Ma Xianfeng, vice president of China Securities Regulatory Commission Financial Research Institute, said, "we should pay attention to enterprises when we go to leverage." The report shows that the differentiation of deleveraging between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises is a relatively prominent phenomenon in the first half of the year. From the perspective of enterprise asset liability ratio, state-owned enterprises are deleveraging while private enterprises are adding leverage
the report believes that since 2017, the more significant change is the decline in the level of implicit leverage of local governments. This is due to the following factors: first, the government, represented by financing platforms and PPP, hidden as the main processing machine, the recycled plastic granulator will have a large number of customers, and the growth rate of debt balance has declined significantly; Second, the growth rate of infrastructure, mainly supported by government funds, fell sharply; Third, the scale of shadow banks, the main source of implicit debt funds of local governments, has decreased significantly. In addition, the strengthening of financial supervision has basically controlled the support of financial institutions for various financing projects implicitly guaranteed by local governments. At the same time, the report also pointed out that in response to the expansion of implicit debt of local governments, our company sent professional technicians (certified engineers) to the site for free online debugging. 4. There are spots on the surface of plated parts
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