The financial logic of observing the strength of p

Market observation: the strong financial logic of pulp futures

release date: Source: zhuochuang information

recently, domestic pulp futures are still in a strong pattern. From a fundamental point of view, the main reasons supporting the rise in the price of pulp futures are, on the one hand, that the market has a strong expectation for a better economy, which will also drive the demand for paper; On the other hand, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp has decreased continuously, and it is difficult to continuously increase the arrival. In addition, the price of pulp in Europe and the United States is also rising. However, according to the investigation of zhuochuang information on the downstream of pulp, the high pulp price has formed a greater pressure on the downstream production. The downward pressure on the prices of household paper, cultural paper and white cardboard in the main downstream of pulp is increasing, the operating load of paper enterprises is also decreasing, and paper enterprises are increasing their de stocking efforts. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is still relatively prominent, and the market has great differences on the later trend

put aside the differences in fundamentals, we might as well make an analysis of pulp 6 through the financial attribute of pulp futures The experimental machine cannot share a power socket with a high-power electrical equipment. A simple study and judgment will be made in the future. We can see that there is a certain correlation between the closing price of domestic pulp futures and the trend of 10-year Treasury bond yield. The logic behind it is that as the main pricing basis of global financial assets, the fluctuation of the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will have an important impact on the allocation of financial assets. At the same time, the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds can also be seen as a barometer of the global economy. As the economy improves, funds will flow from the bond market to high-risk assets, pushing up the yield of treasury bonds; When the economy goes down, funds enter the bond market to avoid risks, driving down the yield of treasury bonds. As an important industrial product, pulp is also highly sensitive to the economy. Therefore, there is a certain correlation between the two trends and plastrude in Australia, which is not difficult to understand

from this perspective, pulp futures have fluctuated at a high level recently, or may be affected by the pullback of US bond yields. What kind of trend will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield show in the later period

as for the later US Treasury bond yield, we still hold the view of medium-term rise: first, the US public health events have been well controlled. The market expects that the US will achieve universal immunization in the third quarter, and the pattern of continued recovery of the US economy will continue; Secondly, inflation expectations will continue to rise. With abundant global liquidity and the bias of low public labor intensity, the degree of health events in various economies has led to the mismatch between supply and demand of bulk commodities, and prices have also risen again and again. In addition, the rebound in U.S. consumption will further push up inflationary pressure in the United States; Finally, the fiscal stimulus measures of the U.S. government may prompt the U.S. Treasury Department to increase bond issuance

in addition, from the perspective of U.S. liquidity, due to the recent increase in inflation expectations, the type of specific use depends mainly on the use itself. The market is worried that the Federal Reserve may release the signal of tightening monetary policy. However, it can be seen from the statement of the Fed's policy meeting that the Fed's attitude of maintaining a loose position has not changed. The Federal Reserve pointed out that the strong performance of major economic indicators reflects the steady recovery of the U.S. economy. Although the current inflation risk in the United States is rising, the risk posed by the epidemic to the economic outlook has not been removed. At the same time, it reiterated that the labor market is far from being repaired, and the Federal Reserve promised to continue to maintain its loose monetary policy position. This means that the Fed will continue to inject liquidity into the market to support further economic recovery

in general, the continuous rise in pulp prices has increased the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. However, from the perspective of the financial attributes of pulp futures, with the strengthening of global inflation expectations, still abundant liquidity, and the upward pressure on US bond yields, pulp futures may still maintain a strong pattern in the later stage